Sharmin Jyoti
Bangladesh’s foreign relations have seen a notable transition over the past five years, which is reflected in a notable improvement in the country’s defense and economic cooperation with China. Despite early obstacles, China-Bangladesh ties have significantly improved thanks to China’s strategy of considerable economic aid and escalating anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh. Both politically and generally, this growing relationship has a lot of support in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s growing propensity towards China shines out clearly despite the fact that Dhaka’s new Indo-Pacific view appears to highlight China’s aspirations in the region. The government’s constant backing from China has been crucial in promoting this alignment. The conflicting interests of other players like India and Russia must also be considered as Bangladesh navigates these shifting geopolitical inclinations. The extensive network of links that Bangladesh must manage is highlighted by the complex geopolitical circumstances in the area. Since all of the key players in the Indo-Pacific region, including the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and India, are significant development partners for Bangladesh, the decisions made by Bangladesh at this time will have a significant impact on its development and security.
Bangladesh’s relationship with China has gotten stronger since 2017. With Chinese investments anticipated to top USD $40 billion, China has surpassed India as Bangladesh’s largest commercial partner. Around $9.75 billion USD have already been invested by China in various transportation projects in Bangladesh, including continuing projects like the Dasher Kandi Sewage Treatment Plant, the Bangabandhu Tunnel, and the Padma Bridge Rail Link. These occasions have been extremely important in promoting economic collaboration, infrastructure growth, and overall bilateral relations between China and Bangladesh. Beijing has increased its presence in the Indo-Pacific through collaboration with Bangladesh.
With a gross flow of USD $940 million during the fiscal year 2021–2022, China has also become Bangladesh’s top source of foreign direct investment (FDI). With 104 investors operating in eight export-processing zones, it has also been named the top foreign investor in Bangladesh in 2022. Despite the difficulties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, bilateral trade between the two nations saw a remarkable gain of 58 percent in the previous year, illuminating the robust resilience of their economic relationship.
A key improvement in bilateral trade relations has been China’s provision of duty-free privileges on Bangladeshi imports. China would allow 97 percent of Bangladeshi goods to enter its market duty-free as of July 1, 2020. With this action, the two nations’ trade and economic cooperation were to be increased. Because of its geopolitical objectives, China has pledged to improve economic relationships and boost Bangladesh’s export-oriented businesses by expanding the coverage of duty-free facilities to 98 percent. China’s provision of duty-free access has been advantageous for Bangladesh as it lowers trade obstacles and fosters the export of Bangladeshi goods to the Chinese market.
Over the past five years, the military alliance between Bangladesh and China has expanded dramatically and improved in transparency. Bangladesh has overtaken Pakistan as China’s second-largest arms buyer, receiving nearly 17% of all military exports from China between 2016 and 2020. Military personnel training in China and joint defense production are now part of the two nations’ expanded defense cooperation.
Bangladesh purchased submarines from China in 2016 to improve its naval capabilities despite prior concerns with Chinese-supplied defense equipment. The nation’s first submarine base, known as BNS Sheikh Hasina, was unveiled near Cox’s Bazar by Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in March 2023. The facility, built by China at a cost of USD $1.2 billion, can house six submarines as well as a number of warships. Two submarines constructed in China are currently stationed at the site, marking a considerable improvement in Bangladesh’s naval capability.
Defense specialists predict that as Bangladesh’s military ties with China grow, India will come under strain in addition to being strengthened. These observers see China’s military interventions in Bangladesh, such the prospective missile station, as a sort of psychological warfare against India that could result in internal political changes and the emergence of pro-China organizations within Bangladesh. As independent states, they are within their rights to form a defense collaboration, but some analysts worry that China’s efforts may go too far and affect regional dynamics. Further enhancing their military ties, China recently agreed to equip the Bangladesh Air Force with 23 Hongdu K-8W intermediate training jets.
Upcoming changes in geopolitics:
Geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region have also escalated following COVID and during the Russia-Ukraine war. Bangladesh should be directly involved in China and the United States’ foreign policy plans. Bangladesh is a partner in the Indo-Pacific region that the United States has invited to join its Indo-Pacific Strategy. China’s response was to demand Bangladesh’s involvement in both its Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative while also issuing a warning that Bangladesh’s relations with China would suffer if it joined the Quad.
Along with China, Russia now joins the fight against American influence in Bangladesh. The American ambassador in Dhaka was charged by the Russian Foreign Ministry for constantly attempting to sway the nation’s internal affairs. The Russian embassy in Dhaka has also attacked the “hegemonic ambitions” of industrialized democracies and accused them of meddling in the domestic affairs of countries that do not support them. The Russian remark undermines American efforts in Bangladesh and eventually strengthens China’s presence there.
In addition to inviting Bangladesh to join its Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative, China has warned that the country’s relations with it would suffer if it joined the Quad.
Bangladesh’s inclination towards China and worries about that country’s disregard for democratic principles and human rights have soured its relations with the United States. The United States has placed penalties on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in reaction to human rights breaches and implemented visa restrictions on anyone who undermine democratic processes. A shift in U.S. policy toward Bangladesh is shown by Bangladesh’s exclusion from the Biden Democracy Summit.
China is providing financial support and bolstering relations with Bangladesh while the United States separates itself from the Awami League administration. In addition, Bangladesh and Russia have agreed to utilize the Chinese yuan as payment in a proposal to build a nuclear power station, which has drawn criticism from the United States. With various nations vying for influence and alliances in Bangladesh, this dynamic reflects the shifting geopolitical interests and rivalries in the area.
A substantial threat to China’s geopolitical interests in the region is also posed by the Rohingya issue in Bangladesh. China’s position in Bangladesh may be further strengthened if this conflict is resolved amicably under its leadership. On the other hand, the United States has acted to address the problem, announcing the Burma Act in support of the people of Myanmar, with ramifications for the Rohingya as well. The United States’ influence and presence in Bangladesh will probably grow as a result of these initiatives. The Rohingya issue’ settlement will have an influence on the geopolitical landscape in the area and on China’s and the United States’ respective interests.
As a result of China’s unwavering backing for the Awami League administration and the United States’ emphasis on democracy, it appears like Bangladesh is leaning toward China. The region’s complicated geopolitical dynamics are highlighted by Bangladesh’s turn towards China, deteriorating ties with the United States, and competing interests from India and Russia. Bangladesh’s alliance decisions will have a big impact on its prosperity and security.
The writer is student of BSS & MSS of Department of International relations, Rajshahi University
